Perhaps after the Asian Financial Crisis (1997) and the World Economic Crisis (2008), market research companies and securities organizations have come across a situation where they have to constantly change their economic forecasts. macroeconomic as in the past. Of course, Covid-19 is a socio-economic event that turns everything upside down.
In mid-August, Rong Viet Securities (VDSC) downgraded Vietnam’s economic outlook for the second half of 2021 to 4%, reflecting the negative effects of the fourth outbreak on domestic activities as well as on domestic activities. lasting effects of Covid-19 prevention measures on economic activity. National economic growth is said to depend on the effectiveness of disease prevention and vaccination progress.
Statistics of VDSC and Fiinpro show that securities, steel and real estate are the three leading industry groups in semi-annual revenue growth. The growth index is 82%, 51% and 47% respectively. While steel and securities still maintained their performance in terms of profit growth, the real estate industry dropped to 5th place with an increase of 75%. In general, most industries reported strong growth in both revenue and net profit in the first 6 months of 2021 but mainly based on last year’s lows.
Regarding the domestic market outlook, this securities company believes that along with retail, F&B and technology, real estate will be the main beneficiary when the social distancing order is gradually eased in the near future. . The unit holds a positive view for the industry’s long-term growth potential. In particular, industrial real estate received more positive points than residential real estate.
In the second half of this year, residential real estate is forecasted to have better business results. Specifically, this sector is forecasted by VDSC with revenue of 12,555 billion dong, net profit of 4,097 billion dong, up 25% and 69% compared to the second half of 2020. Meanwhile, industrial zones can record received a total of 3,826 billion VND in revenue and 487 billion VND in profit after tax. Over the same period, industrial park real estate can accumulate 36% more revenue but lose 47% profit.
“In the second half of 2021, we believe that promoting public investment focusing on transport infrastructure in line with the Government’s policy will be the key factor leading the real estate industry. Besides, the legal conditions will be more favorable from positive changes in the revised Construction Law 2020, Investment Law 2020 and Decree 148/2020/ND-CP. In addition, the fact that home loan interest rates are still maintained at low levels will support stable demand in the coming time. However, the main concern still comes from the increasingly complicated development of the Covid-19 epidemic,” the report stated.
